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Sebastian Quintero
Sebastian Quintero

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Published in Towards Data Science

·Mar 11, 2020

Estimating the Number of Future Coronavirus Cases in the United States

Update 3/14/2020: The model predictions at the bottom of this article have a mean absolute error (MAE) of 86 between 3/11 and 3/14. That implies that the AR-X(1) model outlined in this paper has been accurate to within an average of 86 coronavirus confirmations thus far. Update 3/18/2020: Updated statistics…

Data Science

6 min read

Estimating the Number of Future Coronavirus Cases in the United States
Estimating the Number of Future Coronavirus Cases in the United States
Data Science

6 min read


Published in Journal of Empirical Entrepreneurship

·Jun 10, 2019

Demystifying Startup Equity with Data Science

What percentage of ownership do investors acquire at each financing stage? — If you’re a startup founder, you may struggle to find a reasonable percentage of equity to give your investors in return for their capital. While this is still something you need to figure out on a case by case basis, here’s some data to help guide your judgment. Background Earlier this…

Venture Capital

6 min read

Demystifying Startup Equity with Data Science
Demystifying Startup Equity with Data Science
Venture Capital

6 min read


Published in Journal of Empirical Entrepreneurship

·Jan 30, 2019

Predicting a Startup Valuation with Data Science

The following is a condensed and slightly modified version of a Radicle working paper on the startup economy in which we explore post-money valuations by venture capital stage classifications. We find that valuations have interesting distributional properties and then go on to describe a classical statistical model for estimating an…

Venture Capital

13 min read

Predicting a Startup Valuation with Data Science
Predicting a Startup Valuation with Data Science
Venture Capital

13 min read


Published in Towards Data Science

·Apr 9, 2018

Clustering Cryptocurrencies with Affinity Propagation

To better understand coin correlations we deployed an Affinity Propagation algorithm and found three distinct clusters of crypto assets, at the top end of the market capitalization table, that move in tandem. Introduction A few months ago Radicle’s research team began working on a blockchain composite, not as an investment vehicle…

Machine Learning

8 min read

Clustering Cryptocurrencies with Affinity Propagation
Clustering Cryptocurrencies with Affinity Propagation
Machine Learning

8 min read


Published in Journal of Empirical Entrepreneurship

·Dec 20, 2017

Introducing the Capital Concentration Index™

A measure of startup competition. — How can we measure competitiveness in private startup markets? And what does it really mean when a company raises over $100m in institutional venture capital? Lemonade ($120m), Vacasa ($103m), Compass ($450m), Slack ($250m), Reddit ($200m), and Peloton ($325m) — these companies have all recently raised massive rounds of capital, but…

Venture Capital

6 min read

Introducing the Capital Concentration Index™
Introducing the Capital Concentration Index™
Venture Capital

6 min read


Published in Journal of Empirical Entrepreneurship

·Nov 8, 2017

Dissecting startup failure rates by stage

A few weeks ago in an article titled “How much runway should you target between financing rounds?”, we discovered that the conventional wisdom of targeting 12–18 months of runway between financing events could be a factor that leads to startup failure. We’re delighted with the positive response to that piece…

Venture Capital

5 min read

Dissecting startup failure rates by stage
Dissecting startup failure rates by stage
Venture Capital

5 min read


Published in Journal of Empirical Entrepreneurship

·Oct 26, 2017

How much runway should you target between financing rounds?

Entrepreneurs have limited access to hard data that could help them make sound decisions when trying to build a successful new company. This is generally due to a fundamental lack of information about the materialized events of previously successful companies. Consider that there are a few hundred thousand companies founded…

Data Science

5 min read

How much runway should you target between financing rounds?
How much runway should you target between financing rounds?
Data Science

5 min read


Published in Journal of Empirical Entrepreneurship

·Oct 13, 2017

Introducing the Investor Cluster Score™ — a measure of the signal produced by a startup’s capitalization table.

If you look at any TechCrunch article that announces the latest round of funding for the next promising startup, you’ll notice that the amount of capital raised by the company is placed on equal footing with the quality of the investors that are betting on the company. Taking an example…

Startup

9 min read

Introducing the Investor Cluster Score™ — a measure of the signal produced by a startup’s…
Introducing the Investor Cluster Score™ — a measure of the signal produced by a startup’s…
Startup

9 min read

Sebastian Quintero

Sebastian Quintero

1.3K Followers

Founder, CEO and Chief Scientist @ Invariant Studios

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