Estimating the Number of Future Coronavirus Cases in the United States
Published in
6 min readMar 11, 2020
Update 3/14/2020: The model predictions at the bottom of this article have a mean absolute error (MAE) of 86 between 3/11 and 3/14. That implies that the AR-X(1) model outlined in this paper has been accurate to within an average of 86 coronavirus confirmations thus far.
Update 3/18/2020: Updated statistics are available in a follow-up article.
Update 4/10/2020: Recent data indicates that the US is on a tragic path toward experiencing more infections and mortalities from coronavirus than any other developed country on the planet.
